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Fight Odds: Bet on Manny Pacquiao over Floyd Mayweather Gets Tad More Lucrative

Posted on 04/10/2015

By Ivan G. Goldman

There was slight movement this week on the betting lines of the May 2 super-fight, with the offshore site now paying +175 for a Pacquiao victory, up from +170. A Mayweather win still pays -210, meaning $100 on Pacquiao wins $175 and $210 on Mayweather wins $100.

This represents a short drop in vigorish (house commission). Apparently there’s so much action pouring in that the house figures it can give up a piece of its profit to attract Pacquiao money that might go elsewhere.

Over at the Bovada site, it’s still Mayweather -210 and Pacquiao +170. A win inside the distance for either fighter pays +230. A premium for a kayo victory is to be expected from a bout in which the two fighters have scored an aggregate of three stoppages in their last 20 fights. Bovada offers -300 for a bet that the fight will go the distance.

At 5dimes the over/under is set up somewhat differently. Over 11 and ½ rounds pays -330 and under 11 and ½ pays +270. The different configurations could mean everything if we were to see a repeat of the Meldrick Taylor-Julio Cesar Chavez battle in 1990, when referee Richard Steele stopped it in the last few seconds, snatching away a points victory from busted-up Taylor.

That’s an unlikely scenario for this particular fight, but it’s boxing. Anything can happen.
Meanwhile, in the Brooklyn clash of junior welters this Saturday, Danny Garcia is -400 to +325 Lamont Peterson on 5dimes. At Bovada it’s -400 Garcia and +300 Peterson, giving Peterson bettors a better deal on 5dimes. Notice, however, that if Peterson loses, it doesn’t matter if you took +300 or +325. You still lose. The bout is part of Al Haymon’s PBC series and will be shown on NBC.

Garcia , from nearby Philadelphia, will have the crowd and his youth (age 27) going for him against Peterson, who’s 31 and is listed as a Memphis resident. He’s perhaps most famous though for fighting his way out of homelessness. Garcia is 29-0 (17 KOs) and Peterson 33-2-1 (17 KOs). He lost a lopsided decision to relentless Timothy Bradley and was stopped by Argentine knockout artist Lucas Matthysse in the third round. The contest has been set at a 143-pound catch weight, which is yet another advantage for Garcia.

Back to the superfight. The rumor that Pacquiao has been suffering from severe leg cramps looks phony to me. His camp let L.A. Times columnist Bill Dwyre sit in on a training session last week, and Bill’s been around the block a few times. Team Pacquiao wouldn’t let him in if there were injuries to hide.

Plus, there’s a workout scheduled for additional media consumption next week. It’s yet more evidence that the Philippines congressman isn’t hobbling around on cramped calves.

As for the rumor that Mayweather has been having sore hands, allow me to point out that he’s been suffering from fragile hands for years and remains undefeated.

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