Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Goes Into “Safe” Mode – Could He Crash?

by Charles Jay

At this point, if you are in the Houston area, you are no doubt rushing out to buy your tickets for the November 14 middleweight title fight between two fighters who have carved out decent careers but who might have had more distinguished fathers.

You already knew that Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is the son of you-know-who. But it is also appropriate to put the “Jr.” behind Peter Manfredo’s name. His dad was a heck of a kick-boxer; I saw him. And now the son gets a second chance to win a world belt.

The credentials Manfredo had prior to fighting for a title the first time were actually not bad, all things considered. And there is some irony there, He defeated an aging Frankie Randall, who handed Chavez Sr. his first loss. There is also a victory over Grady Brewer, who went on a pretty good run at one point with wins over Steve Forbes and Cornelius Bundrage. He beat Anthony Bonsante, who handed Tony Ayala Jr. a TKO loss. He knocked out heavy-hitting Scott Pemberton. And in a fight that went to a seven-round decision and took place during “The Contender,” he came out on top of Alfonso Lopez, who has fought for a couple of world titles.

However, when he was on the big stage, Manfredo got that “deer-in-the-headlights” look when he fought Joe Calzaghe for the WBO super middleweight title, he was so non-combative, so outclassed, that he actually damaged his prospects for being taken seriously ever again as a title contender. And these are the things that the most people notice.

And he has lost twice since that third-round stoppage loss to Calzaghe. He was a “comeback opponent” for Jeff Lacy and got beat on a decision, and was also knocked out in three rounds, in his hometown, by Sakio Bika.

He has won his last six fights, and they have been against middling opponents (e.g., Matt Vanda, who had nine career losses, Angel Hernandez, who has lost four of his last six, or Daniel Edouard, whose career highlight was getting stopped in three rounds by Jermain Taylor years ago). He is currently ranked #4 by the WBC, but we don’t really need to offer a tutorial on how some guys get rated, do we?

So maybe the best way to describe Manfredo is to say that while he has a lot of credibility if you’re talking about ESPN’s “Friday Night Fights,” going after world championships might be another thing. When you see him in a fight like this, it tells you a lot about the objective of the principles of matchmaking and career-building.

Chavez, as you can imagine, has bigger fish to fry. He’s got a name, and he’s going to exploit that name, and this fight is a stepping stone on the way to doing just that. So you can conclude that the promoters see Manfredo as someone who is “safe.” That’s a conclusion you come to off the performances against the better opponents, like Calzaghe and Lacy. Less than half his fights have ended in KO wins.

While making this particular fight says something about Manfredo, it also says something about Chavez. Naturally the people who are pulling the strings aren’t interested in a lot of risk. They picked a champion they considered vulnerable (Sebastian Zbik) to win a title from, and aren’t looking for major roadblocks on the way to a big payday, whatever that payday eventually is.

Of course, the end game is largely dependent on whether certain promoters can get together and cooperate. One fight that would surely fill a stadium in Mexico would involve Chavez Jr. against Canelo Alvarez, and it would have big pay-per-view potential in the Latin market. Believe it or not, I have heard one of Floyd Mayweather’s people express that Floyd would be interested in him as a future opponent, which would, I guess, help Floyd make a vertical move toward a title in another division.

Everybody knows this kid can draw, and legitimate drawing cards in boxing are not an everyday thing. Everybody also knows that he is not nearly as good as his father.

What that translates to in this business is that he’s going to be “pampered” wherever possible until the time comes to cash in very big.

If the younger Chavez has life-and-death in this one, that’s an indication he’s going to have even greater trouble with guys who hit back with a little more authority.

And to what lengths will they go to protect him then?